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2024-12-14 07:33:26

After the release of US economic data, traders increased their bets on the Fed's interest rate cut next year, and US short-term interest rate futures narrowed and fell earlier.Market news: STARBOARD VALUE shares in bitcoin mining company RIOT.Australia plans to force technology giants to pay for news content. The Australian government announced a new tax plan on the 12th, which will force technology giants to pay for news content to Australian media companies, otherwise they will face the risk of being charged higher taxes. According to the Australian government's plan, all digital platforms with an annual income of more than A $250 million (about US$ 160 million) in Australia must reach a commercial agreement with Australian media organizations on the use of news content, otherwise they will face the risk of being charged higher taxes. (Xinhua News Agency)


French Foreign Ministry spokesman: It is too early to discuss lifting EU sanctions against Syria.Qualcomm appointed BAAZIZ ACHOUR as Chief Technology Officer.European Central Bank President Lagarde: The inflation problem has not yet been completed. European Central Bank President Lagarde said that the inflation problem has not yet been completed and the anti-inflation task has not yet ended, but inflation is moving towards the goal.


Royal Bank of Canada: The European Central Bank may move towards negative real interest rate. Royal Bank of Canada BlueBay Asset Management said that the European Central Bank may cut the interest rate below 2% next year, which the agency estimated to be a short-term neutral interest rate. Kaspar Hense, senior portfolio manager of the institution, said in a report that the core inflation rate is expected to be around 2.5% in the first half of 2025, which means that the real interest rate will be negative. He said that under the influence of unfavorable factors such as trade, continuous competitive pressure from other countries and financial problems, this should play a moderate supporting role in the economy.The US dollar just broke through the 7.2700 yuan mark against the offshore RMB, and the latest report was 7.2689 yuan, down 0.12% in the day; The US dollar against the onshore RMB was recently reported at 7.2688 yuan, up 0.10% in the day.Analysis: Lagarde's speech increased the market's bet to cut interest rates by 50 basis points. In December, the European Central Bank lowered its economic forecast and inflation forecast. At the press conference, European Central Bank President Lagarde paid attention to the downside risks of economic growth, especially mentioning that trade friction may put pressure on economic growth, and also mentioned that they discussed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points. Therefore, the atmosphere of the whole meeting is biased towards doves. The market then increased its bet on a 50 basis point rate cut after January. Although the possibility of a sharp interest rate cut in January is stable at 30%, the possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in March has increased from 30% before the meeting to 40%, and the possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in April has increased from 0% to 5%.

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